Winning Points
NCAA
****BEST BET
AUBURN* over MISSISSIPPI STATE by 35
It was almost an exact-score win from Auburn at the top of these pages last week,
and we saw exactly what we wanted to see in Gene Chizik’s debut – the offense relished
working in Gus Malzahn’s playbook, with Chris Todd hitting 17-26 for 255
and a pair of scores, while the one-two punch of Ben Tate inside, and Onterio
McCalebb on the perimeter, produced a pair of 100-yard rushers. They will only
get better as they grow in confidence and add more chapters from that playbook,
but in truth it is the defense that takes the lead here. That group only allowed one
touchdown to Louisiana Tech, coming on a drive in which three major penalties
ate up most of the yardage, and they have a chance to control matters completely
here in what has been one of the strongest defense vs. offense series dominations
in recent memory. The Mississippi State 5th year seniors have managed all of one
offensive touchdown and two field goals in four meetings vs. the Tigers, and the
matchup issues might be even worse this time. The personnel is just not there yet
to run Dan Mullen’s spread schemes with any degree of success vs. this class, especially
on the road, and their development in the spring was limited because of key
injuries at the WR spots. Without an ability to control the ball it forces the Bulldog
defense to be on the field far too long, and with only four returning starters that
group is actually a weak link for a change, after allowing 36.5 points per game in
going 1-4 ATS as road underdogs last season, AUBURN 41-6.
***BEST BET
SOUTHERN MISS* over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 31
The 2008 Southern Miss season did not raise a many eyebrows, with the Golden
Eagles barely scraping their way to a .500 regular season, and then rallying to beat
Troy in an uninspiring bowl win. But in truth the first season under Larry Fedora
was a huge success, with his playbook being absorbed much more quickly than we
thought possible given the drastic changes in schemes. The key is that the personnel
were ideal, with Austin Davis having an outstanding freshman season at QB
(3,128 passing yards, with 23 TD’s vs. only eight interceptions, and 508 more on
the ground), Damion Fletcher running for 1,313 yards at 6.0 per pop, and four
different receivers catching at least 33 passes. Now the major keys are back except
for TE Shawn Nelson, who can be replaced, and the OL returns every starter. That
means a chance to pick up right where they left off, and perhaps to even magnify
that in the second go-round of these systems, which means adding new layers. That
spells bad news for George O’Leary, who saw his Golden Knights humbled much
worse than the 17-6 final score at Orlando last year, with Southern running 88
plays to 49, and leading 22-10 in first downs. Now we see the gap as being even
wider, with UCF lacking playmakers anywhere on offense. It is not easy to average
16.6 points and 230 yards per game in this day and age, which they did last year,
and the 14 first downs and 282 yards vs. Samford in the opener confirms our suspicions
about the lack of talent at the skill positions. SOUTHERN MISS 41-10.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
North Carolina over Connecticut* by 14
There is a perception that these two programs are on an even footing, with Randy
Edsell and Butch Davis both doing a good job of getting their teams into bowls,
and in the huut for more of the same again. We see a difference, however, as Davis
has been able to recruit better personnel to Chapel Hill, particularly on defense,
where there is an outside chance that every member of the two-deep in the DL will
end up in an NFL training camp. And it is that defense that controls this one. The
Huskies were able to survive offensively last year because of the brilliance of
Donald Brown, who ran for 2,083 yards and 18 TD’s. But without that threat far
too much falls on the shoulders of QB Zach Frazier, who had an awful 6:2 ratio of
interceptions to TD passes as a sophomore, and picked up right where he left off
at Ohio U. last week, throwing three picks despite never trailing for a single snap.
Frazier gets rattled by both the Tar Heel pass rush and the speed of the secondary
here, and those same mistakes happen again. NORTH CAROLINA 30-16.
U.A.B.* over S.M.U. by 22
It has been chic in many pre-season publications to call for S.M.U. to make some
strides in the second season under June Jones, but we do not share any of that optimism.
A program that is off of back-to-back 1-11 campaigns has a long way to go
before they can be competitive, and we are not convinced that Jones is the answer.
Yes, there are some impressive cycles in that resume, and for many years he was
indeed way ahead of the game in terms of the spread passing attack. These days
most defenses see something similar week in and week out, which means that he
will have to win with players, not tactics. The current roster does not bring the
kind of playmakers to open up his playbook yet, while a defense that has allowed
39.8 and 38.2 the past two seasons does not show any reason for optimism. That
means a chance for the drastically improved Blazers to build on that easy win over
Rice, a game in which Joe Webb produced over 400 yards of total offense, and
Webb’s size makes it difficult for that small Mustang defensive front to create any
pressure. U.A.B. 42-20.
Boston College* over Kent State by 10
That opening rout of Northeastern may lead the public to believe that all is well at
Chestnut Hill, but that is hardly the case. A defense that is usually so sound in the
trenches lost 1st (B. J. Raji) and 2nd (Ron Brace) round draft picks in the DL, and
unfortunate circumstances have them without LB’s Mark Herzlich and Mike
McLaughlin, the guys they expected to be the leaders while the young DL matured
on the job. Yet for all of the problems the defense is still the strength of the team,
with the offense still not having a clear #1 QB, a picture that may have actually
grown more muddled on Saturday, when Frank Spaziani used four different signal
callers. Without the ability to strike quickly on offense, and with the defense vulnerable
to the kind of cutbacks that Eugene Jarvis can make behind that veteran
Kent OL, this one does not come easily at all, particularly with the distraction of
that key A.C.C. revenge affair at Clemson that is immediately on deck. Even with
a full focus this would not come easily. BOSTON COLLEGE 24-14.
Tulsa over New Mexico* by 26
There are going to be a lot of growing pains with these Lobos, who are trying to
get new schemes in play on both sides of the ball, and the matchups on defense
look disastrous this week. After getting rocked 56-14 at Tulsa last year, when they
allowed 606 yards, now they not only have new faces throughout the defensive
huddle, but also a crew of coaches that will be seeing the Golden Hurricane playbook
for the first time. That creates an uphill battle, as Tulsa brings a veritable
encyclopedia of offensive options to the table, and the New Mexico confidence will
be at an absolute low ebb after Texas A&M’s uninspiring attack rang up the same
count of 606 yards that Tulsa took them for last year. The Lobos were not able to
stop the run (245 yards at 5.2 per carry) or the pass (32-43 without an interception),
which opens the door for a Tulsa attack that loves to dictate the flow to be
running and passing downhill all evening. And without a ground game of their
own, DeWayne Walker’s team can‘t even work the tempo to try to keep this reasonable.
TULSA 42-16.
NFL
****BEST BET
Green Bay over Chicago by 21
The Pack is Back. No team enjoyed a stronger preseason than Green Bay. In
13 preseason possessions against the Browns,Bills, Cardinals and Titans, the
Packers’ first-string put up nine touchdowns and one field with no
turnovers and only one punt. Green Bay’s No. 1 defense came up with
seven takeaways and forced three punts, while giving up one touchdown
and two field goals. Sure preseason is preseason. Detroit, after all, won all
its preseason games last year and then didn’t win a regular-season contest.
But it isn’t a leap of faith to suggest the Packers are vastly better than their
6-10 mark of a year ago when they lost seven games by four points or less.
Just two years ago the Packers were an overtime win away from reaching
the Super Bowl. Brett Favre would have stayed retired if he knew how good
Aaron Rodgers has become. Rodgers was nearly perfect in preseason with
a 147.9 quarterback rating. Favre’s highest preseason rating, by comparison,
was 93.5 in 1997.The Packers played their finest game of the season
when they annihilated Chicago at home last season, 37-3. Green Bay has
made a smooth transition going from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. It helps having
a healthy linebacker Nick Barnett and lineman Cullen *******. The Bears
haven’t seen a division foe use a 3-4 alignment since 1994. It’s not good
news for workhorse running back Matt Forte. Jay Cutler gives Chicago its
first true playmaking quarterback since Jim McMahon. Cutler, though, doesn’t
have the receiving weapons he had at Denver. He’s still learning to get
in sync with his new targets.The Bears’ defense has aged considerably since
their Super Bowl appearance of three years ago. It’s not nearly as good.
GREEN BAY 34-13.
***BEST BET
*Cincinnati over Denver by 18
Dysfunctional usually applies to the Bengals. This time the word fits the
Broncos better. Denver’s 33-year-old Josh McDaniels has had the bumpiest
ride of any of the first-year head coaches.The Broncos have serious quarterback
problems because McDaniels couldn’t reach an accord with Jay
Cutler.Anointed starter Kyle Orton has a finger injury on his throwing hand
that leaves his status up in the air.Veteran backup Chris Simms is bothered
by a high ankle sprain. So there exists the possibility rookie Tom
Brandstater, a sixth-round draft pick, could be left to start. Star wider receiver
Brandon Marshall isn’t a lock to play either after being suspended during
preseason for insubordination. If this isn’t enough, injuries have also
struck the offense with wideout Jabar Gaffney (broken thumb), running
back Knowshon Moreno (knee) and guard Chris Kuper (ankle) all questionable.
It’s not like the Broncos have a great defense to fall back on.
Denver ranked last in the AFC in 2008 giving up 28 points per game.They
were second from the bottom in total defense, allowing 374.6 yards per
contest, and still haven’t found a nose guard to anchor their 3-4 conversion.
The Bengals will be much improved on offense with Carson Palmer back
behind center. Look for a huge rebound from talented wide receiver Chad
Ochocinco. Running back Cedric Benson has had a training camp to get
comfortable after coming to Cincinnati last October.The Bengals’ defense
really picked up last year under new coordinator Mike Zimmer, finishing
12th in overall defense. That was the Bengals’ best defensive rating since
2001. Cincinnati is 3-1 SU and ATS in opening week during the past four
seasons. CINCINNATI 28-10.
**PREFERRED
**Miami over *Atlanta by 7
Few, if any, expect Miami to duplicate its 11-5 AFC East-winning Division
title of a year ago after going 1-15 two years ago.The Dolphins won’t be
catching teams by surprise and their schedule is far more difficult. But let’s
not underrate the Dolphins.They are a solid,well-coached team that is one
of the best conditioned squads in the NFL. Miami also is one of the most
physical teams in the league, mirroring the mindset of coach Tony Sparano
and Bill Parcells. The Falcons have gotten tougher under Mike Smith, but
they’re still more finesse rather than physical in comparison to the
Dolphins. Atlanta has a suspect secondary that savvy veteran Chad
Pennington can exploit.The Dolphins fly under the radar screen because
they aren’t flashy. They don’t have superstars. Miami does have running
back depth headed by Ronnie Brown and an underrated receiving corps.
The Dolphins were the team that introduced the Wildcat Formation last
year that caught New England and other teams by surprise. Opponents
know that formation now, but the Dolphins still have two of the best players
to execute the Wildcat with Brown and rookie Pat White, an option
quarterback. MIAMI 24-17.
New York Jets over *Houston by 6
Optimism is high in Houston that after seven seasons, the Texans are ready
to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.That optimism is
misplaced.The Texans are decent, but not strong enough to lay this many
points.The Jets are missing a couple of key suspended defensive players –
Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace – but still have enough talent to keep the
Texans from putting up a big score. Defensive guru Rex Ryan will make
sure of that. Ryan’s aggressive Jets finished preseason with 18 sacks.Texans
quarterback Matt Schaub suffered a left ankle injury during preseason. He
may not be 100 percent. Rookie Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has had his
moments. The Jets will take the pressure off Sanchez by staying on the
ground utilizing Thomas Jones and Leon Washington to take advantage of
Houston’s weak defensive interior. Adrian Peterson gouged the Texans for
117 yards rushing on 11 carries during preseason. So did New Orleans
backup running back Mike Bell, rushing for 100 yards on 10 carries. The
Texans lack experienced and reliable defensive backs with franchise cornerback
Dunta Robinson (check status) staging a stubborn holdout. NY
JETS 23-17.
NCAA
****BEST BET
AUBURN* over MISSISSIPPI STATE by 35
It was almost an exact-score win from Auburn at the top of these pages last week,
and we saw exactly what we wanted to see in Gene Chizik’s debut – the offense relished
working in Gus Malzahn’s playbook, with Chris Todd hitting 17-26 for 255
and a pair of scores, while the one-two punch of Ben Tate inside, and Onterio
McCalebb on the perimeter, produced a pair of 100-yard rushers. They will only
get better as they grow in confidence and add more chapters from that playbook,
but in truth it is the defense that takes the lead here. That group only allowed one
touchdown to Louisiana Tech, coming on a drive in which three major penalties
ate up most of the yardage, and they have a chance to control matters completely
here in what has been one of the strongest defense vs. offense series dominations
in recent memory. The Mississippi State 5th year seniors have managed all of one
offensive touchdown and two field goals in four meetings vs. the Tigers, and the
matchup issues might be even worse this time. The personnel is just not there yet
to run Dan Mullen’s spread schemes with any degree of success vs. this class, especially
on the road, and their development in the spring was limited because of key
injuries at the WR spots. Without an ability to control the ball it forces the Bulldog
defense to be on the field far too long, and with only four returning starters that
group is actually a weak link for a change, after allowing 36.5 points per game in
going 1-4 ATS as road underdogs last season, AUBURN 41-6.
***BEST BET
SOUTHERN MISS* over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 31
The 2008 Southern Miss season did not raise a many eyebrows, with the Golden
Eagles barely scraping their way to a .500 regular season, and then rallying to beat
Troy in an uninspiring bowl win. But in truth the first season under Larry Fedora
was a huge success, with his playbook being absorbed much more quickly than we
thought possible given the drastic changes in schemes. The key is that the personnel
were ideal, with Austin Davis having an outstanding freshman season at QB
(3,128 passing yards, with 23 TD’s vs. only eight interceptions, and 508 more on
the ground), Damion Fletcher running for 1,313 yards at 6.0 per pop, and four
different receivers catching at least 33 passes. Now the major keys are back except
for TE Shawn Nelson, who can be replaced, and the OL returns every starter. That
means a chance to pick up right where they left off, and perhaps to even magnify
that in the second go-round of these systems, which means adding new layers. That
spells bad news for George O’Leary, who saw his Golden Knights humbled much
worse than the 17-6 final score at Orlando last year, with Southern running 88
plays to 49, and leading 22-10 in first downs. Now we see the gap as being even
wider, with UCF lacking playmakers anywhere on offense. It is not easy to average
16.6 points and 230 yards per game in this day and age, which they did last year,
and the 14 first downs and 282 yards vs. Samford in the opener confirms our suspicions
about the lack of talent at the skill positions. SOUTHERN MISS 41-10.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
North Carolina over Connecticut* by 14
There is a perception that these two programs are on an even footing, with Randy
Edsell and Butch Davis both doing a good job of getting their teams into bowls,
and in the huut for more of the same again. We see a difference, however, as Davis
has been able to recruit better personnel to Chapel Hill, particularly on defense,
where there is an outside chance that every member of the two-deep in the DL will
end up in an NFL training camp. And it is that defense that controls this one. The
Huskies were able to survive offensively last year because of the brilliance of
Donald Brown, who ran for 2,083 yards and 18 TD’s. But without that threat far
too much falls on the shoulders of QB Zach Frazier, who had an awful 6:2 ratio of
interceptions to TD passes as a sophomore, and picked up right where he left off
at Ohio U. last week, throwing three picks despite never trailing for a single snap.
Frazier gets rattled by both the Tar Heel pass rush and the speed of the secondary
here, and those same mistakes happen again. NORTH CAROLINA 30-16.
U.A.B.* over S.M.U. by 22
It has been chic in many pre-season publications to call for S.M.U. to make some
strides in the second season under June Jones, but we do not share any of that optimism.
A program that is off of back-to-back 1-11 campaigns has a long way to go
before they can be competitive, and we are not convinced that Jones is the answer.
Yes, there are some impressive cycles in that resume, and for many years he was
indeed way ahead of the game in terms of the spread passing attack. These days
most defenses see something similar week in and week out, which means that he
will have to win with players, not tactics. The current roster does not bring the
kind of playmakers to open up his playbook yet, while a defense that has allowed
39.8 and 38.2 the past two seasons does not show any reason for optimism. That
means a chance for the drastically improved Blazers to build on that easy win over
Rice, a game in which Joe Webb produced over 400 yards of total offense, and
Webb’s size makes it difficult for that small Mustang defensive front to create any
pressure. U.A.B. 42-20.
Boston College* over Kent State by 10
That opening rout of Northeastern may lead the public to believe that all is well at
Chestnut Hill, but that is hardly the case. A defense that is usually so sound in the
trenches lost 1st (B. J. Raji) and 2nd (Ron Brace) round draft picks in the DL, and
unfortunate circumstances have them without LB’s Mark Herzlich and Mike
McLaughlin, the guys they expected to be the leaders while the young DL matured
on the job. Yet for all of the problems the defense is still the strength of the team,
with the offense still not having a clear #1 QB, a picture that may have actually
grown more muddled on Saturday, when Frank Spaziani used four different signal
callers. Without the ability to strike quickly on offense, and with the defense vulnerable
to the kind of cutbacks that Eugene Jarvis can make behind that veteran
Kent OL, this one does not come easily at all, particularly with the distraction of
that key A.C.C. revenge affair at Clemson that is immediately on deck. Even with
a full focus this would not come easily. BOSTON COLLEGE 24-14.
Tulsa over New Mexico* by 26
There are going to be a lot of growing pains with these Lobos, who are trying to
get new schemes in play on both sides of the ball, and the matchups on defense
look disastrous this week. After getting rocked 56-14 at Tulsa last year, when they
allowed 606 yards, now they not only have new faces throughout the defensive
huddle, but also a crew of coaches that will be seeing the Golden Hurricane playbook
for the first time. That creates an uphill battle, as Tulsa brings a veritable
encyclopedia of offensive options to the table, and the New Mexico confidence will
be at an absolute low ebb after Texas A&M’s uninspiring attack rang up the same
count of 606 yards that Tulsa took them for last year. The Lobos were not able to
stop the run (245 yards at 5.2 per carry) or the pass (32-43 without an interception),
which opens the door for a Tulsa attack that loves to dictate the flow to be
running and passing downhill all evening. And without a ground game of their
own, DeWayne Walker’s team can‘t even work the tempo to try to keep this reasonable.
TULSA 42-16.
NFL
****BEST BET
Green Bay over Chicago by 21
The Pack is Back. No team enjoyed a stronger preseason than Green Bay. In
13 preseason possessions against the Browns,Bills, Cardinals and Titans, the
Packers’ first-string put up nine touchdowns and one field with no
turnovers and only one punt. Green Bay’s No. 1 defense came up with
seven takeaways and forced three punts, while giving up one touchdown
and two field goals. Sure preseason is preseason. Detroit, after all, won all
its preseason games last year and then didn’t win a regular-season contest.
But it isn’t a leap of faith to suggest the Packers are vastly better than their
6-10 mark of a year ago when they lost seven games by four points or less.
Just two years ago the Packers were an overtime win away from reaching
the Super Bowl. Brett Favre would have stayed retired if he knew how good
Aaron Rodgers has become. Rodgers was nearly perfect in preseason with
a 147.9 quarterback rating. Favre’s highest preseason rating, by comparison,
was 93.5 in 1997.The Packers played their finest game of the season
when they annihilated Chicago at home last season, 37-3. Green Bay has
made a smooth transition going from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. It helps having
a healthy linebacker Nick Barnett and lineman Cullen *******. The Bears
haven’t seen a division foe use a 3-4 alignment since 1994. It’s not good
news for workhorse running back Matt Forte. Jay Cutler gives Chicago its
first true playmaking quarterback since Jim McMahon. Cutler, though, doesn’t
have the receiving weapons he had at Denver. He’s still learning to get
in sync with his new targets.The Bears’ defense has aged considerably since
their Super Bowl appearance of three years ago. It’s not nearly as good.
GREEN BAY 34-13.
***BEST BET
*Cincinnati over Denver by 18
Dysfunctional usually applies to the Bengals. This time the word fits the
Broncos better. Denver’s 33-year-old Josh McDaniels has had the bumpiest
ride of any of the first-year head coaches.The Broncos have serious quarterback
problems because McDaniels couldn’t reach an accord with Jay
Cutler.Anointed starter Kyle Orton has a finger injury on his throwing hand
that leaves his status up in the air.Veteran backup Chris Simms is bothered
by a high ankle sprain. So there exists the possibility rookie Tom
Brandstater, a sixth-round draft pick, could be left to start. Star wider receiver
Brandon Marshall isn’t a lock to play either after being suspended during
preseason for insubordination. If this isn’t enough, injuries have also
struck the offense with wideout Jabar Gaffney (broken thumb), running
back Knowshon Moreno (knee) and guard Chris Kuper (ankle) all questionable.
It’s not like the Broncos have a great defense to fall back on.
Denver ranked last in the AFC in 2008 giving up 28 points per game.They
were second from the bottom in total defense, allowing 374.6 yards per
contest, and still haven’t found a nose guard to anchor their 3-4 conversion.
The Bengals will be much improved on offense with Carson Palmer back
behind center. Look for a huge rebound from talented wide receiver Chad
Ochocinco. Running back Cedric Benson has had a training camp to get
comfortable after coming to Cincinnati last October.The Bengals’ defense
really picked up last year under new coordinator Mike Zimmer, finishing
12th in overall defense. That was the Bengals’ best defensive rating since
2001. Cincinnati is 3-1 SU and ATS in opening week during the past four
seasons. CINCINNATI 28-10.
**PREFERRED
**Miami over *Atlanta by 7
Few, if any, expect Miami to duplicate its 11-5 AFC East-winning Division
title of a year ago after going 1-15 two years ago.The Dolphins won’t be
catching teams by surprise and their schedule is far more difficult. But let’s
not underrate the Dolphins.They are a solid,well-coached team that is one
of the best conditioned squads in the NFL. Miami also is one of the most
physical teams in the league, mirroring the mindset of coach Tony Sparano
and Bill Parcells. The Falcons have gotten tougher under Mike Smith, but
they’re still more finesse rather than physical in comparison to the
Dolphins. Atlanta has a suspect secondary that savvy veteran Chad
Pennington can exploit.The Dolphins fly under the radar screen because
they aren’t flashy. They don’t have superstars. Miami does have running
back depth headed by Ronnie Brown and an underrated receiving corps.
The Dolphins were the team that introduced the Wildcat Formation last
year that caught New England and other teams by surprise. Opponents
know that formation now, but the Dolphins still have two of the best players
to execute the Wildcat with Brown and rookie Pat White, an option
quarterback. MIAMI 24-17.
New York Jets over *Houston by 6
Optimism is high in Houston that after seven seasons, the Texans are ready
to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.That optimism is
misplaced.The Texans are decent, but not strong enough to lay this many
points.The Jets are missing a couple of key suspended defensive players –
Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace – but still have enough talent to keep the
Texans from putting up a big score. Defensive guru Rex Ryan will make
sure of that. Ryan’s aggressive Jets finished preseason with 18 sacks.Texans
quarterback Matt Schaub suffered a left ankle injury during preseason. He
may not be 100 percent. Rookie Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has had his
moments. The Jets will take the pressure off Sanchez by staying on the
ground utilizing Thomas Jones and Leon Washington to take advantage of
Houston’s weak defensive interior. Adrian Peterson gouged the Texans for
117 yards rushing on 11 carries during preseason. So did New Orleans
backup running back Mike Bell, rushing for 100 yards on 10 carries. The
Texans lack experienced and reliable defensive backs with franchise cornerback
Dunta Robinson (check status) staging a stubborn holdout. NY
JETS 23-17.
Pointwise Newsletter
College Football Key Releases (2-4, 33%, "1" rated selections 0-2 last week)
1--Auburn (-14') over Mississippi State 38-13
1--South Carolina (+7) over Georgia 17-15
2--TCU (-10') over Virginia 30-10
2--S. Mississippi (-15') over UCF 41-17
3--Vanderbilt (+15) over LSU 24-30
4--East Carolina (+5') over West Virginia 26-20
5--USC (-6') over Ohio State 31-17
5--Clemson (+5') over Georgia Tech (THURSDAY) 20-19
NFL Key Releases...
3--Cincinnati (-4') over Denver 30-20
3--New England (-11) over Buffalo 31-13
4--Pittsburgh (-6) over Tennessee (THURSDAY) 20-10
4--Seattle (-8') over St. Louis 30-16
5--Carolina (+1) over Philadelphia 24-20
College Football Key Releases (2-4, 33%, "1" rated selections 0-2 last week)
1--Auburn (-14') over Mississippi State 38-13
1--South Carolina (+7) over Georgia 17-15
2--TCU (-10') over Virginia 30-10
2--S. Mississippi (-15') over UCF 41-17
3--Vanderbilt (+15) over LSU 24-30
4--East Carolina (+5') over West Virginia 26-20
5--USC (-6') over Ohio State 31-17
5--Clemson (+5') over Georgia Tech (THURSDAY) 20-19
NFL Key Releases...
3--Cincinnati (-4') over Denver 30-20
3--New England (-11) over Buffalo 31-13
4--Pittsburgh (-6) over Tennessee (THURSDAY) 20-10
4--Seattle (-8') over St. Louis 30-16
5--Carolina (+1) over Philadelphia 24-20
Gold Sheets Week 2
Trying new file sharing site didn't see anything bad about it.
All 3 Gold Sheets at one spot.
Link working at time of post
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=08c514eef852bf215a3d773badf21430e04e75f6e8ebb871
Trying new file sharing site didn't see anything bad about it.
All 3 Gold Sheets at one spot.
Link working at time of post
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=08c514eef852bf215a3d773badf21430e04e75f6e8ebb871
Last edited:
Pointwise Red Sheet 9/10--9/14
AUBURN 41 - Mississippi State 13 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 15, and is now minus 14½.
That's right, the Tigers also graced this spot on LW's Red Sheet, with a solid 11-pt cover the
result. Check a resounding 37-13 rout, while amassing 556 yds (311-yd edge) vs a LaTech
team which returned 16 starters from its '08 bowl-winning squad. That's a far cry from a
year ago, when Auburn ranked 104th in the nation on offense. New HC Chizik, along with a
bevy of quality assistants has turned this normal power around. As we've written before: a
team on a mission. 'Dogs hardly the team to curb this momentum.
RATING: AUBURN 89
SO MISSISSIPPI 44 - Central Florida 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at SoMiss minus 14, and is now minus 15.
Looks like the same old story for UCF, despite returning 10 offensive starters. Ranked as
the worst offensive team in the nation in '08, the Knights managed only 14 FDs & 282 total
yds last week, in barely getting by Samford, 28-24, at home, no less. Eagles also return a
batch of "O" starters (9), & nearly match that with 8 veterans on "O". Led Alcorn, 35-0 at the
half last week, & held a 398-62 RY edge at game's end. Six straight wins, five straight
covers, & check 41:56-18:04 time edge over Knights LY. Highly doable spread.
RATING: SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 89
TEXAS TECH 55 - Rice 14 - (7:00) -- Line opened at TexasTech minus 25, and is now minus 27. Not the
best of openers for the Raiders, who would normally take no prisoners vs the likes of No
Dakota. But a 405-PY effort from new QB Potts is an indication that this latest Leach edition
has the potential to keep recent explosive efforts in tact. Owls were spectacular in '08,
ranking 10th in the land in scoring & total "O". But the departure of record-setting QB Clement
(44 TDs) puts too much pressure on newcomers. Cannot offset lacking "D".
RATING: TEXAS TECH 88
TENNESSEE 34 - Ucla 13 - (4:00) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 10, and is now minus 8. As you know,
the Vols sat in this exact same position a week ago, & came through with a 63-7 romper over
lowly WesternKy (26-pt cover). Much like the Auburn Tigers above, who are in off a rare
down campaign, UT is under new leadership, with a renewed dedication. So scores to
settle, beginning with Bruins, who won in OT last year, so absolutely no peek ahead to new
week's game with Florida. Host team is 30-13 ATS in Bruin contests. Ditto.
RATING: TENNESSEE 88
East Carolina 26 - WEST VIRGINIA 20 - (3:30) -- Line opened at WestVirginia minus 7, and is now minus
6½. Here we go again. The Pirates have enjoyed superb success vs the Mounties in recent
years, smothering WVa's highly potent overland game, in the process. As we wrote earlier,
just 127, 153, & 179 RYs for Mounties in 3 of last 4 vs ECU (18, 3½, 28½ pt Pirate covers).
WVa is now without the blazing White at QB, & has yet to top 35 pts under Stewart, who
replaced Rodriguez LY. Call yet another series upset for the Pirates.
RATING: EAST CAROLINA 88
GREEN BAY 37 - Chicago 24 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Line opened at GreenBay minus 3, and is now minus 3½.
One of the most misleading records of LY, belonged to these Packers, whose 6-10 log
featured no less than a franchise-record 7 losses by 4 pts or less, while losing their final 5
games. Can't forget nearly making it to the Super Bowl just a year earlier, as well as the
development of Rodgers, who finished behind only Warner & Brees among NFC QBs (28
TDs & >4,000 yds). Took the Bears by 34 here LY, with a 200-yd edge. Cutler, of course, is
a decided improvement under center, for Chicago, but we'll give the TD spot.
RATING: GREEN BAY 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): SoCaro, Utah, IowaSt, Nebraska -- NFL: Bengals, Patriots, Chargers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Washington (-18 to -21); Tulsa (-14½ to -17½); Wake
Forest (Pick to -2½); LSU (-12 to -14½); KansasSt (5 to -7½); UCLA (+10 to +8); Texas Tech (-25 to -27);
BostonCollege (-25 to -27); WashSt (+3½ to +1½); SouthernCalifornia (-4½ to -6½); IowaSt (+8 to +6½);
Missouri (-16½ to -18) - NFL: Baltimore (-9 to -13); Philadelphia (+1 to -1); Dallas (-4 to -6); Sn Diego (-7½ to
-9½); Pittsburgh (-5 to -6); Cincinnati (-3½ to -4½); Seattle (-7½ to -8½)
- TIME CHANGES: No changes thru
Wednesday
- KEY INJURIES: Alabama RB Ingram (knee) probable; BYU RB Unga (hamstring) ??; Clemson
RB Spiller (hamstring) probable; Georgia OT Sturdivant (knee) out for season; Iowa RB Hampton (knee)
out for season; Kansas WR Briscoe (suspension) probable; Michigan RB Minor (ankle) probable; MississippiSt
RB Dixon (suspension) probable); Oklahoma QB Bradford (shoulder) out 2 to 4 weeks; Oregon RB Blount
(suspension) out for season; OregonSt QB Moevao (shoulder) doubtful; PennSt LB Bowman (ankle) ??;
SouthCarolina LB Paulk (knee) out for season; SoMississippi WR Brown (leg) ??; SoFlorida RB Ford (suspension)
doubtful; Toledo RB Williams (suspension) doubtful; Utah DE Misi (back) probable; Vanderbilt RB
Hawkins (foot) ??; VaTech RB Evans (ACL) out for season - NFL: Arizona WR Boldin (hamstring) ??; Atlanta
QB Ryan (Sickness) probable; Cincinnati QB Palmer (ankle) probable; Denver QB Orton (finger) probable;
Denver WR Marshall (suspension) probable; Houston QB Schaub (ankle) probable; Jacksonville RB Jones-
Drew (ankle) probable; KC QB Cassel (knee) doubtful; NwEngland QB Brady (shoulder) probable; NewOrleans
RB Thomas (knee) ??; StLouis QB Bulger (finger) probable...
AUBURN 41 - Mississippi State 13 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Auburn minus 15, and is now minus 14½.
That's right, the Tigers also graced this spot on LW's Red Sheet, with a solid 11-pt cover the
result. Check a resounding 37-13 rout, while amassing 556 yds (311-yd edge) vs a LaTech
team which returned 16 starters from its '08 bowl-winning squad. That's a far cry from a
year ago, when Auburn ranked 104th in the nation on offense. New HC Chizik, along with a
bevy of quality assistants has turned this normal power around. As we've written before: a
team on a mission. 'Dogs hardly the team to curb this momentum.
RATING: AUBURN 89
SO MISSISSIPPI 44 - Central Florida 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at SoMiss minus 14, and is now minus 15.
Looks like the same old story for UCF, despite returning 10 offensive starters. Ranked as
the worst offensive team in the nation in '08, the Knights managed only 14 FDs & 282 total
yds last week, in barely getting by Samford, 28-24, at home, no less. Eagles also return a
batch of "O" starters (9), & nearly match that with 8 veterans on "O". Led Alcorn, 35-0 at the
half last week, & held a 398-62 RY edge at game's end. Six straight wins, five straight
covers, & check 41:56-18:04 time edge over Knights LY. Highly doable spread.
RATING: SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 89
TEXAS TECH 55 - Rice 14 - (7:00) -- Line opened at TexasTech minus 25, and is now minus 27. Not the
best of openers for the Raiders, who would normally take no prisoners vs the likes of No
Dakota. But a 405-PY effort from new QB Potts is an indication that this latest Leach edition
has the potential to keep recent explosive efforts in tact. Owls were spectacular in '08,
ranking 10th in the land in scoring & total "O". But the departure of record-setting QB Clement
(44 TDs) puts too much pressure on newcomers. Cannot offset lacking "D".
RATING: TEXAS TECH 88
TENNESSEE 34 - Ucla 13 - (4:00) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 10, and is now minus 8. As you know,
the Vols sat in this exact same position a week ago, & came through with a 63-7 romper over
lowly WesternKy (26-pt cover). Much like the Auburn Tigers above, who are in off a rare
down campaign, UT is under new leadership, with a renewed dedication. So scores to
settle, beginning with Bruins, who won in OT last year, so absolutely no peek ahead to new
week's game with Florida. Host team is 30-13 ATS in Bruin contests. Ditto.
RATING: TENNESSEE 88
East Carolina 26 - WEST VIRGINIA 20 - (3:30) -- Line opened at WestVirginia minus 7, and is now minus
6½. Here we go again. The Pirates have enjoyed superb success vs the Mounties in recent
years, smothering WVa's highly potent overland game, in the process. As we wrote earlier,
just 127, 153, & 179 RYs for Mounties in 3 of last 4 vs ECU (18, 3½, 28½ pt Pirate covers).
WVa is now without the blazing White at QB, & has yet to top 35 pts under Stewart, who
replaced Rodriguez LY. Call yet another series upset for the Pirates.
RATING: EAST CAROLINA 88
GREEN BAY 37 - Chicago 24 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Line opened at GreenBay minus 3, and is now minus 3½.
One of the most misleading records of LY, belonged to these Packers, whose 6-10 log
featured no less than a franchise-record 7 losses by 4 pts or less, while losing their final 5
games. Can't forget nearly making it to the Super Bowl just a year earlier, as well as the
development of Rodgers, who finished behind only Warner & Brees among NFC QBs (28
TDs & >4,000 yds). Took the Bears by 34 here LY, with a 200-yd edge. Cutler, of course, is
a decided improvement under center, for Chicago, but we'll give the TD spot.
RATING: GREEN BAY 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): SoCaro, Utah, IowaSt, Nebraska -- NFL: Bengals, Patriots, Chargers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Washington (-18 to -21); Tulsa (-14½ to -17½); Wake
Forest (Pick to -2½); LSU (-12 to -14½); KansasSt (5 to -7½); UCLA (+10 to +8); Texas Tech (-25 to -27);
BostonCollege (-25 to -27); WashSt (+3½ to +1½); SouthernCalifornia (-4½ to -6½); IowaSt (+8 to +6½);
Missouri (-16½ to -18) - NFL: Baltimore (-9 to -13); Philadelphia (+1 to -1); Dallas (-4 to -6); Sn Diego (-7½ to
-9½); Pittsburgh (-5 to -6); Cincinnati (-3½ to -4½); Seattle (-7½ to -8½)
- TIME CHANGES: No changes thru
Wednesday
- KEY INJURIES: Alabama RB Ingram (knee) probable; BYU RB Unga (hamstring) ??; Clemson
RB Spiller (hamstring) probable; Georgia OT Sturdivant (knee) out for season; Iowa RB Hampton (knee)
out for season; Kansas WR Briscoe (suspension) probable; Michigan RB Minor (ankle) probable; MississippiSt
RB Dixon (suspension) probable); Oklahoma QB Bradford (shoulder) out 2 to 4 weeks; Oregon RB Blount
(suspension) out for season; OregonSt QB Moevao (shoulder) doubtful; PennSt LB Bowman (ankle) ??;
SouthCarolina LB Paulk (knee) out for season; SoMississippi WR Brown (leg) ??; SoFlorida RB Ford (suspension)
doubtful; Toledo RB Williams (suspension) doubtful; Utah DE Misi (back) probable; Vanderbilt RB
Hawkins (foot) ??; VaTech RB Evans (ACL) out for season - NFL: Arizona WR Boldin (hamstring) ??; Atlanta
QB Ryan (Sickness) probable; Cincinnati QB Palmer (ankle) probable; Denver QB Orton (finger) probable;
Denver WR Marshall (suspension) probable; Houston QB Schaub (ankle) probable; Jacksonville RB Jones-
Drew (ankle) probable; KC QB Cassel (knee) doubtful; NwEngland QB Brady (shoulder) probable; NewOrleans
RB Thomas (knee) ??; StLouis QB Bulger (finger) probable...
